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Analyse Technique
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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Lun 31 Mar - 14:03 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

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MessagePosté le: Lun 31 Mar - 14:03 (2014)    Sujet du message: Publicité

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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Dim 6 Avr - 14:57 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/04/10-year-treasury-yield-deat…





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MessagePosté le: Mar 8 Avr - 14:19 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Market Outlook published a week ago:  Volatility On The Rise
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2118073-algorithmic-market-outlook-volatili…


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MessagePosté le: Ven 2 Mai - 14:46 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Dow Theory back in action



Dow Theory back in action as transports, industrials hit record
May 1, 2014, 5:23 PM ET

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Last week, the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT  closed at a record level, exciting a lot of Dow Theory enthusiasts who waited for the confirmation from the Dow Industrials. Finally, they got it.
Digital Media Pro/Shutterstock.com
The theory, developed by Charles Dow in 1884, states that when both the industrials and transportation stocks rally to close at record levels in tandem (the modern strategist interprets it as within a few days), it signals long-lasting market gains — i.e. the ‘buy signal’.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA   had struggled to scale a new high until Wednesday, when it finally closed at a record level.
Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at ConvergEx Group, a global brokerage company based in New York, says that the Dow Theory has a long historical track record of predicting bull markets.
“It would be nice if the transports and industrials moved together, but given current volatility, the theory still holds even if they hit new highs within days.”
He also points out that within the transportation index it is the airlines that have rallied the most. Delta Air Lines DAL  is up 35%, while Southwest Airlines LUV is up 29% since the start of the year. The Dow Transportation index is up more than 4%, compared to a 1.9% gain in the S&P 500.
Airlines companies’ earnings have long been the most volatile, says Colas. But the industry has changed after consolidations and it looks like their profits are turning out to be a lot more sustainable, given the improving economy.
“When investors buy airlines and other transport companies, it indicates a lot of confidence in the economy,” he said.


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MessagePosté le: Ven 23 Mai - 15:06 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Credit Suisse reads Piketty
Joseph Cotterill Author alerts | May 22 11:56 | 7 comments | Share

This FT Alphaville writer hasn’t read Capital in the Twenty-First Century (YES, OKAY, SORRY).




However, this is so good from William Porter and team at Credit Suisse, it’s time to reconsider:
Citation:
One fundamental thesis is that “r>g”; the returns to capital are greater than the growth rate. Therefore, capital (see below) grows to eventually dominate the economy, driving growing inequality. For now it is hard to argue the opposite, yet we are not (traceably) oligarched by the offspring of Roman emperors. Clearly the process is interrupted occasionally, and the implicit message of the book is that “we can do this the hard way, or we can do this the easy way”…
Turning back to the euro area, we have pointed out on a number of occasions that, in the periphery, still, “r>g”, where r is nominal bond yields and g is nominal growth. So BTP selloffs make us nervous, being non-linear. (When the nerves flicker on the traders’ option, “r” rises, begetting more unsustainability, begetting more nerves…) As long as the unsustainable sustains, however—until the hard way / easy way choice we got so used to a couple of years ago reappears—gains are accruing disproportionately to capital (the core). The recent correction to the tyranny of “r>g”, aka the euro crisis (past tense) can be plainly seen in the performance of Germany’s foreign-asset position:

This loss between 2007 and 2012 in our view does not reflect the true loss of financial claims, which in our view is worse. For example we can only reconcile Greece’s and Germany’s balance sheets (where Germany holds the long-term, low-coupon junior part of a capital structure with 175% debt/GDP at par) by marking down the latter’s long-term inter-government claims. This is a bezzle.


Click those charts to enlarge. The bezzle point implies that someone is eventually going to take write-downs. We would argue that it is too late for the axe to fall on (senior) private bondholders, and perhaps also that much remains to be learnt from how lenders to sovereigns rather efficiently dealt with the hard way in the days of Philip II of Spain.
There’s a book we’ve been reading in place of Piketty…
Related link:
Kapital for the Twenty-First Century? – James K Galbraith
This entry was posted by Joseph Cotterill on Thursday May 22nd, 2014 11:56. Tagged with Debt Restructuring, Sovereign Debt, Thomas Piketty.




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MessagePosté le: Jeu 12 Juin - 16:51 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Virtual Stock Exchange

Our free stock-market game
• Trade your virtual portfolio in real time
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MessagePosté le: Mer 18 Juin - 08:58 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant


June technical backdrop is bullish 
Analysis: The U.S. markets’ technical trends continue to point firmly higher, reports Michael Ashbaugh.
• What Tony Gwynn can teach about investing 
• Gayed: Why the Fed fears Uber 

• Sell stocks when you can, not when you must st 


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MessagePosté le: Mer 27 Aoû - 13:31 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

How to protect against risk after S&P 2,000 
Trading Deck: There is a potential gap down lurking for the Dow and S&P, so the time for putting stops to work to protect profits is here, writes Thomas H. Kee Jr.


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MessagePosté le: Mer 1 Oct - 18:45 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

"The Trend Is Your Friend... Until It Ends"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2014 - 12:05

The Russell 2000 just broke crucial primary support from the 2009 lows to become the first of the major indices to do so...


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MessagePosté le: Mer 8 Oct - 09:57 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/ESZ4http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/YMZ4http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/NQZ4


Volume shows just how weak Nasdaq has become
• McMillan: One key S&P 500 indicator is flashing sell signs
• Oil sinks to new lows | Burton: How to buy bonds in a rising-rate world
• Market’s October backdrop remains bearish | Why crashes happen


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MessagePosté le: Mar 14 Oct - 16:48 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

The "Crazy Ivan" Playbook: How To Time A Near-Term Market BottomSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2014 - 10:31

Just when you think the selloff couldn’t get any scarier, it did. The last hour of trading took over 1% out of the S&P 500 in rapid fashion, reportedly on fears of an Ebola check at a major U.S. airport. Today we offer up a “Top 10” list of specific markets and indicators to watch for signs of a near term market bottom. They include the CBOE VIX Index (key levels at 26 and 32), the action in small cap stocks and crude oil, and the dollar. Less quantifiable issues – but important nonetheless – are headlines related to Ebola (probably getting worse before better), 10-year Treasury bond yields (2.0% and 1.5% possible here), and European policymakers addressing a host of difficult monetary and fiscal policy issues. Bottom line: this is unlikely to be a dramatic “V-bottom” low given the range of issues of concern to investors.  Look for the majority of our “Top 10” to stop going down before calling a bottom.


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MessagePosté le: Jeu 13 Nov - 11:48 (2014)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Five red flags raised by stock market’s record run


How not to get suckered by a market winning streak 

Wal-Mart, Kohl’s earnings in focus
Bearish ‘megaphone’ pattern calls for stock market selloff
77 stocks in S&P 500 rise to new highs


• Market Snapshot: Strategist calls 2,040 a tough barrier for S&P 500


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MessagePosté le: Lun 9 Mar - 16:11 (2015)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

Quelques liens en français :






https://www.prorealtime.com/fr/


http://www.boursedirect.fr/alternext.php


http://www.trading-school.eu/glossaire-bourse/alpha-A


http://www.waldata.fr/opportunites/apprendre/les_indicateurs_techniques/index.asp?name=%R%20de%20Williams&Id=81


http://www.abcbourse.com/apprendre/11_comment_lire_un_graphique.html


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MessagePosté le: Mar 7 Juil - 18:55 (2015)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

    
July 7, 2015
The Wall Street Raid on Your Piggy Bank

Question: How do you get a $1 million portfolio?
Answer: Give $2 million to a stockbroker.

Don’t you hate phone solicitors?

Well, if you lived in western Washington during the 1980s, I may have very well interrupted your dinner with a “can’t miss” stock solicitation. I worked as a Merrill Lynch stockbroker in the 1980s, and we had mandatory work nights where everyone with less than five years of service cold-called everyone that lived in the best zip codes.



I made pretty good money as a stockbroker, but I didn’t like the business. There was intense pressure to push certain products, but that wasn’t all.

One of the greatest paradoxes of the investment industry was that the safest investments paid the lowest commissions while the riskiest investments paid the highest commissions.

Example #1: The commission on a CD was half of 1% while the commission for an illiquid oil/gas limited partnership was 8%.

I would have had to sell 16 times as many CDs to make as much as one of my dirt-bag co-workers who pushed little old ladies into oil & gas limited partnerships that locked up their money for six, seven, or eight years, or more.

Example #2: The commission on the sale of proprietary Merrill Lynch mutual funds was approximately 15% higher than on non-Merrill Lynch mutual funds.

Today’s commission payouts are different than they were in the 1980s, but that high-risk/high-commission paradox and the higher profits on proprietary products are still very much alive. And there’s no shortage of Wall Street dirt bags who are more interested in their paychecks than in your net worth.



I’m not talking about a couple of bad apples here. I’m talking about institutionalized greed that is woven into the DNA of people working on Wall Street.

Example: JPMorgan Chase & Company is currently in negotiations with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on whether it inappropriately steered private-banking clients to its own proprietary investment products—such as JPMorgan mutual funds—and away from those offered by other firms.

Why would a JPMorgan adviser push customers into JPMorgan’s own products? Because of higher fees to the firm and higher commissions to the broker.

Instead of recommending investments that are in the best interest of the client, advisers are still pushing investments that make themselves and their firm the most money.

I don’t mean to pick specifically on JPMorgan. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is currently investigating Bank of America and Wells Fargo for the same practices.

To be fair, the Wall Street crowd isn’t the only part of the investment food chain that is enriching itself at your expense.

CEOs, with the cooperation of rubber-stamp boards of directors, pay themselves massive amounts of money even if the shareholders lose their money.

Check out these CEOs, who were paid tens of millions in 2014 even through their investors lost money.



General Electric: Jeff Immelt was paid $37.3 million while his shareholders lost 6.7%.
Boeing: James McNerney, Jr. pocketed $28.9 million while Boeing stock fell 2.5%.
IBM: Virginia Rometty cashed in $19.3 million even though IBM stock was down 12.4%.
Viacom: Philippe Dauman was paid $44.3 million even though Viacom stock was down 6.6%.
Loews: James Tisch received $10.5 million while his shareholders lost 12.4%.
What’s an investor to do?

Turn yourself into an informed, independent investor instead of a decision-dependent investor. That process starts with educating yourself.

To that end, here is my list of (free) investment websites that I religiously read.

Thoughts From the Frontline: John Mauldin’s weekly missive is the most widely read investment newsletter in the world for good reasons.

The Fiscal Times: The Business & Economy section is packed with big-picture interpretation of important global business news.

Evergreen Virtual Advisor: A once-a-week newsletter that concentrates on avoiding investment land mines.

Seeking Alpha: A compilation of hundreds of investment advisers analyzing the economic news of the day.

Forecasts & Trends: A heavy dose of (conservative) politics mixed with economics.

Value Walk: Some of the brightest minds that you’ve never heard of contribute insightful, news-driven articles.

The Hopewell Journal: I pay careful attention to Asian markets, and so should you.

Big Bear Cafe: Even if you are a bull, you should always be looking for signs of tough times.

I also subscribe to several paid services, but free is a very good price, and the above sites are great places to start.

Thanks to all that research, I recently discovered a great stock for my Yield Shark subscribers: a lithium producer that’s been doing everything right. Share price appreciation and dividend hikes combined, 15-year shareholders are sitting on a 503% return.


Tony Sagami


30-year market expert Tony Sagami leads the Yield Shark and Rational Bear advisories at Mauldin Economics. To learn more about Yield Shark and how it helps you maximize dividend income, click here. To learn more about Rational Bear and how you can use it to benefit from falling stocks and sectors, click here.

 


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MessagePosté le: Jeu 16 Juil - 22:42 (2015)    Sujet du message: Analyse Technique Répondre en citant

What you need to know to trade the head-and-shoulders pattern, courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior VP of Research Todd Salamone.

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