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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mar 2 Avr - 21:24 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Martin Wolf
Why China’s economy might topple


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Publicité






MessagePosté le: Mar 2 Avr - 21:24 (2013)    Sujet du message: Publicité

PublicitéSupprimer les publicités ?
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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 3 Avr - 22:25 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

La Corée du Nord autorise l'armée à attaquer les Etats-Unis
03/04 | 22:14 
 
L'armée nord-coréenne dit avoir le feu vert pour une éventuelle "frappe nucléaire" contre les Etats-Unis. 


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 10 Avr - 11:14 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Cette nuit en Asie : la Chine affiche un déficit commercial surprise en mars
10/04 | 07:38 | Yann Rousseau

Contre toute attente le commerce extérieur chinois est dans le rouge. Mais c'est peut être le signe d'une reprise de la demande intérieure. En Inde, Yamaha produit la moto la moins chère du monde.


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shadok
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MessagePosté le: Mer 10 Avr - 11:47 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

La Serbie serait-elle en train de se tourner vers Eurasia ? 
http://fr.rian.ru/world/20130409/198032166.html


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 10 Avr - 11:52 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

La réponse est oui.

L'Europe rejoue les psychodrames des XIXe et XXe siècles.

On parlait de l'Allemagne géant économique, et nain politique. Elle est restée un nain politique; il n'y a aucune réflexion stratégique en Europe. Un vide sidérant.


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Jeu 11 Avr - 09:56 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

From GLOBAL ECONOMY 5:06am China’s forex reserves reach $3.4tn
©Getty Inflows fuel a worrying surge in credit growth


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Dim 14 Avr - 01:50 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Le scénario préconçu d’Obama et la menace de guerre nucléaire en Asie

Par Peter Symonds
Mondialisation.ca, 09 avril 2013


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Dim 14 Avr - 04:51 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Chinese naval escort taskforce starts first visit to Morocco

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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Dim 14 Avr - 04:52 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant


 
Chinese president meets US secretary of state
President Xi Jinping on Saturday met with visiting US Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss bilateral ties and issues of common concern. Xi first recalled Kerry's last visit to China as chairman of the US Senate foreign rela...


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Dim 14 Avr - 05:06 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

[*] Australia needs to learn to take Chinese goals more seriously - Asian Review - Globaltimes.cn
150 comments · 4 hours ago


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Jeu 18 Avr - 14:32 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant


COMMENTARY SPOTLIGHT
China repeating Japan’s mistakes
China’s response to the global financial crisis resembles what Japan did three decades ago, writes Satyajit Das.



SYDNEY (MarketWatch) — Despite a history of conflict and competition, China and Japan share development models. But if it is not careful, China may also share Japan’s economic fate.
Both Japan’s postwar economic recovery and China’s recent growth were based on exports and low-cost labor. Undervalued currencies gave exporters a competitive advantage, and exports were promoted at the expense of household income and consumption.



In addition, China and Japan both encouraged high domestic savings rates, which was used to finance investment. Both countries generated large trade surpluses they invested overseas, primarily in U.S. government securities, to avoid upward pressure on their currencies and to help finance purchases of their exports. Both also used high levels of investment financed domestically to drive economic growth.
For Japan, the music stopped in September 1985 when the Plaza Accord forced the yen USDJPY +0.23% to appreciate, reducing Japanese exports and economic growth.
In order to restore growth, Japan’s policymakers then engineered a credit-driven investment boom to offset the effects of a stronger yen, driving a bubble in asset prices that ultimately collapsed. Government spending and low-interest rates have since been used to avoid a collapse in economic activity, only worsening the imbalances.
Japan has been left with large budget deficits, very high levels of government debt, and enlargement of the central bank balance sheet, in part to finance the government and support financial asset prices.Read more: As Japan goes, so goes the world.
Banking crisis in the making
Until 1990, Japan was highly successful — growing strongly with only brief interruptions. Since 1990, after the bubble economy burst, Japan has been mired in almost two decades of uninterrupted stagnation.
China’s resistance to a sudden revaluation of the renminbi USDCNY +0.09%  is rooted in avoiding the Japanese experience.

Satyajit Das
Yet China’s response to the global financial crisis, which triggered a sharp decline in Chinese exports and slowdown in economic activity, is akin to that of Japan following the Plaza Accord.
Instead of government spending, China has sought to drive growth by a rapid expansion of credit from the state-owned banking system, which has driven an investment boom.
And like Japan before it, China’s banking system is vulnerable. Rather than budget deficits, China has used directed bank lending to specially targeted projects to maintain high levels of growth.
China’s reliance on overvalued assets as collateral, and infrastructure projects with insufficient cash flows to service the debt means that many loans will not be repaid. These bad loans may trigger a banking crisis or absorb a significant portion of Chinese large pool of savings and income reducing the economy’s growth potential.
Moreover, at the onset of its crisis, Japan was a much richer country than China, and so had a significant advantage in dealing with the slowdown. Japan also possessed a good education system, strong innovation and technology, and a stoic work ethic that helped it adjust. Japan’s world-class manufacturing skills and significant intellectual property in electronics and heavy industry also gave it an edge.
In contrast, China relies on cheap labor, to assemble or manufacture products for export using imported materials. A labor shortage and rising wages is reducing competitiveness. China’s attempts at innovation and high-technology manufacturing are still nascent.
Chinese authorities admit that the credit-driven investment strategy has led to the misallocation of capital, unproductive investments and loan losses at government-owned banks.
China’s challenges
In recent years, popular awe of the achievements of China has increased. But it is entirely possible that China’s spectacular success could end in surprising failure, as the country fails to make the needed economic transition.
The question now is can China avoid becoming the next Japan.
China faces significant challenges in moving from its investment-led growth model. Growth based on endless subsidized expansion of capacity is increasingly not viable. Attempts to continue the present strategy or adjustment may cause an economic slowdown greater than forecast, with consequences for China’s social and political stability.
The world assumes that China will continue its growth, albeit at a more moderate rate than in recent years. This view is based on what the global economy needs, rather than the facts. As the novelist C.S. Lewis observed: “If you look for truth, you may find comfort in the end; if you look for comfort you will not get either comfort or truth, only soft soap and wishful thinking to begin, and in the end, despair.”



Satyajit Das is a former banker and author of “Extreme Money” and “Traders, Guns & Money.”


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Jeu 18 Avr - 14:43 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Un commentaire de l'article de Stayajit Das :

Brian Perry 7 hours ago
i see China as the next super-power along with Russia (and Iran as a major oil factor). The fact that china is influencing it's citizens to save for investments is EXACTLY the right thing to do to grow an economy. China will soon turn those exports around and create/manufacture materials and goods for THEIR OWN CONSUMPTION. The USD is going to crash.
China has already secured talks with multiple asian countries, australia, and now going after european countries, recently France, to dump the USD as a middle man and trade directly with their own currencies. When this happens, the USDs that all these countries own (because it is currently used as a middle man for trade), are going to come flooding back to us. No longer can the government export inflation because nobody wants the USD.
People say we don't have inflation, we have deflation. The definition of an increase in money supply is inflation. Additionally, when we don't produce anything, when the USD is phased out as the world reserve currency...the cost of imports will be staggering. Imports of oil will skyrocket, imports of food will skyrocket and be scarce. China holds up to a trillion dollars of USD sitting in US treasuries. When china says, "we don't want to see our holdings collapse", they are going to dump the USDs and purchase gold. China is already trading with Iran for oil and china is buying oil with gold. gold is money. many people make the mistake of thinking china needs us...the fact is, china could destroy us in a second and be relatively well off. 
The federal reserve is currently blowing up the final bubble of this boom/bust cycle. The USD and Bond Market bubble. Inflation is being hidden by exporting it (because we think countries want our USD) and it's hiding in the bond market (the fed buys treasuries with money that is printed [i.e., printing money to pay for your debt]). Currently, treasury bonds are being less and less purchased by foreign investors and private investors. The fed is the main buyer of these bonds. What happens when the fed unloads their balance sheet? Who's going to buy this debt?
when the dollar fails, the global banks will slowly start to merge currencies around the world to create one world currency, so you won't be able to go anywhere else besides this one currency...this currency will either be pegged with gold or oil, or both.
Make sure your investments and savings are intact for this. make sure you have a modest food supply or be prepared to pay high prices for it. 
Good Luck.


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shadok
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MessagePosté le: Mar 30 Avr - 07:45 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Samsung bafoue les droits .. http://www.peuples-solidaires.org/appel-urgent-357_chine-samsung/

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MessagePosté le: Mar 30 Avr - 07:55 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Reprise au Japon  : 
Japon: chômage au plus bas et rebond de la consommation, l'espoir continue
https://www.boursorama.com/actualites/japon-chomage-au-plus-bas-et-rebond-d…


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 1 Mai - 20:12 (2013)    Sujet du message: Asie Répondre en citant

Chinese Way of Doing Business: In Cash We Trust By DAVID BARBOZA
Analysts say wariness between citizens and their government means many still prefer to pay the old-fashioned way.


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