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Marchés 2012
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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 09:24 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Dec. 21, 2012, 1:01 p.m. EST
U.S. downgrade risk can create bond-fund trap 

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http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story_email.asp?guid={20161FE0-74D9-4049-AD…http://www.marketwatch.com/Story/story/print?guid=20161FE0-74D9-4049-AD78-D…

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About Thomas H. Kee Jr.
Thomas H. Kee Jr. is the president and CEO ofStock Traders Daily(dotcom), where he offers strategies and newsletters to both institutional and individual investors, and he manages money privately for both institutional and individual investors through Equity Logic LLC. A specialist in technical analysis, Kee is also the founder of one of the leading, longer-term fundamental economic and stock market indicators in history, The Investment Rate. This proprietary tool, which is available to clients, too, predicts major economic cycles well in advance, and has been accurate since 1900. Using his broader observations of the economy to define disciplines, Kee has been able to accurately predict market cycles in advance using his multi-tiered technical indicators, and that combination has kept him ahead of the curve since starting Stock Traders Daily in January 2000.



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THE TRADING DECK IS POWERED BY 
 
 

By Thomas H. Kee Jr.
In the early part of December, a good friend of mine told me he had followed my advice. He said that he saw risks in the economy, he recognized that the market was near the peaks that were set in 2007 and in 2000, and also noticed that substantial declines happened after each one of those peaks, so he moved his 401(k) out of equity funds.


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Publicité






MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 09:24 (2012)    Sujet du message: Publicité

PublicitéSupprimer les publicités ?
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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 12:52 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

FINANCE-MARCHÉS 
La justice fait trembler les dirigeants d'entreprises allemands
26/12 | 11:29 | Jean-Philippe Lacour 
 
Les mises en causes pénales de responsables de banques et d'entreprises se multiplient outre-Rhin. La justice doit faire face à une hausse de la délinquance économique. 


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Danyves
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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 12:53 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

TECH-MÉDIAS 
Violation de brevets : Samsung dépose plainte à son tour contre Ericsson
26/12 | 08:34 
 
Le premier fabricant mondial de smartphones réplique au dépôt de plainte effectué il y a un mois par son concurrent suédois. 


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 12:53 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

oyota espère vendre 9,9 millions de véhicules en 2013
26/12 | 09:03 | Les Echos 
 
Le groupe japonais table sur une hausse de 2% de ses ventes au niveau mondial l'an prochain. 


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 15:37 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

FINANCE-MARCHÉS 
Des actionnaires veulent bloquer la fusion Nyse Euronext-ICE
26/12 | 12:05 | mis à jour à 12:22 | Guillaume Maujean 
 
Un fonds de pension américain vient de porter plainte, estimant que l'opération de fusion de 8,2 milliards de dollars avec ICE, officialisée jeudi dernier, sous-évalue Nyse Euronext. 
 


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 15:57 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Financial board games
A series of new board games allow you to be a rogue trader

http://www.economist.com/news/christmas/21568589-media-mogul-whose-extraord…


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 16:10 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Financial crime


The king of con-menThe biggest fraud in history is a warning to professional and amateur investors alike


Dec 22nd 2012 | from the print edition



LOCH KATRINE is an unlikely birthplace for a master criminal. The slice of pristine water stretches through the heart of Scotland’s Loch Lomond national park, around 30 miles north of Glasgow. At its head is a small house which takes its name from the loch’s main tributary, Glen Gyle. It is a peaceful setting.
Glengyle house was built in the early 17th century by the clan MacGregor, a family made famous by Rob Roy, born there in 1671. Rob’s debt-dodging antics have made him very popular in Scotland (his creditors were rich landowners). He features in two Hollywood films, an operetta and a cocktail. Gregor MacGregor, born at Glengyle in 1786, is less well known. He deserves more attention: he pulled off the greatest confidence trick of all time.
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MacGregor’s biggest swindle raised £200,000. Over his lifetime, his bond-market frauds ran to £1.3m (as a share of Britain’s economy, around £3.6 billion today). It is true that more recent scams have raised more. Bernie Madoff, a New York-based fraudster caught out in 2008 ran a scheme 20 times bigger, at $65 billion. In cash terms alone Mr Madoff trumps MacGregor.
But fraud is about creating false confidence, and making people believe in something that does not exist. For some, like Mr Madoff, it is the belief in the trickster’s shamanic stock-picking skills. For others, like Charles Ponzi, it is a fail-safe mathematical scheme. MacGregor was far more ambitious: he invented an entire country. He was, he claimed, the “Cazique” or Prince of this land—Poyais—located near the Black River, in modern-day Honduras (see map).



MacGregor claimed that Poyais covered 8m acres (an area larger than Wales). It was rich in natural resources but in need of development. That would require both cash and manpower. Through an elaborate publicity campaign, he succeeded in persuading people not only to invest their savings in the bonds of a non-existent government, but also to emigrate to a fictional country. How on earth did he manage it?
The blind capital of the country
The financial climate of the early 1820s was ideal for a con man. Napoleon had been defeated and the British economy was expanding steadily, driven on by manufacturing. The cost of living was falling, with industrial workers’ wages rising. Interest rates drifted down, with the government borrowing more and more cheaply. The country was in upbeat mood.
The downside to all this was that investing in government debt, a staple place to park spare funds, had become boring. The market rate on the most popular British government bond (the “consol”) fell steadily between 1800 and 1825. The government made the most of this, swapping its existing debt for new bonds that paid rates as low as 3%.
All this gave British investors the incentive and the confidence to look for more exciting opportunities. One option was to lend money to governments that paid higher interest rates. Russia, Prussia and Denmark had good credit records, but offered a 5% return. These countries raised large chunks of cash in London in the early 1820s.
Another was to invest in mining companies, which could yield massive gains if investors got in at the right time: shares in the Anglo-American company rose by over 300% in the space of one month at the end of 1824. Looking back at the boom in 1859 David Evans, a financial journalist, noted that investors started to make “sanguine anticipations of inordinate gain”.
Other Latin American investments became fashionable too. The collapse of the Spanish empire meant there was suddenly a list of new countries to invest in. London experienced its first emerging-market boom, with debt raised on behalf of the newly formed governments of Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Guatemala. The loans were attractive: Mexican bonds paid 6%, double the rate on the British consol.
All this should have been a warning sign. Investors were hunting for returns, as they would later do in the run up to the Great Depression and to the subprime crisis. Financiers tend to do silly things when searching for yield. Looking back at the boom 30 years later The Economist reported that loans were being made for “mining companies to explore lands which contained no metal”.
MacGregor rode this wave of Latin American optimism. In October 1822 he offered a £200,000 Poyais bond at 6%, a similar rate to that paid by the governments of Peru, Chile and Colombia. Unlike these countries, Poyais had no record of collecting taxes or system for doing so. But MacGregor argued that Poyais was so abundant in natural resources that export-tax revenue would easily cover the interest payments on the debt. And doubting investors only had to look at the Poyais settlement scheme for evidence that the plan was going ahead. It worked, and the bond was successfully floated. MacGregor’s funding was in place.
A new life in a distant land
MacGregor’s search for settlers was successful for different reasons. One was his aggressive sales pitch, described in “The Land that Never Was” (2004), by David Sinclair. It included interviews in the national papers, a book (supposedly written by Thomas Strangeways, but actually by MacGregor himself), and promises of friendly natives, a mild climate and fertile soil. Poyais’s forests were filled with valuable timber. It was strategically well placed near the Isthmus of Panama, with plans for a canal being mooted even in the early 1800s.

Paradise for the credulous: Poyais, as depicted in MacGregor’s publicity material

MacGregor’s prospectus would have found a natural audience in a public keen to start afresh abroad. Moving to the United States was as popular as buying stocks there. In the 1820s emigration to America, which had been held back by war, started to pick up again. MacGregor needed to persuade settlers that Poyais, a brand-new country, had more to offer than America did.
But some of the promises sounded very iffy. The natives were not only friendly, but loved the British. The soil was not just fertile, but capable of sustaining three maize harvests per year (elsewhere, two would be good going). The water supply was not just clean, clear and abundant, but in the streams of Poyais there were chunks of gold. How did the settlers, a group that included a banker, doctors and experienced military men, fall for this nonsense?
New research by Tamar Frankel of Boston University suggests some answers. Ms Frankel studied hundreds of financial cons, looking for recurring patterns. One set that pops up time and time again describes the traits of the victims. They tend to be excessively trusting, have a high risk tolerance, and—especially the more educated victims—have a need to feel exclusive, or part of a special group. Other research shows that victims tend to harbour dissatisfaction with their current economic status, and a desire not to be left behind. Some feel envious of their economic neighbours, which can lead to greedy, risky investing.
There are reasons to suspect that MacGregor’s settlers would have had many of these traits. He targeted those with a natural tendency to trust him. While he raised cash in London, he looked for settlers in Scotland claiming that hardy and adventurous Highlanders had the skills and character to develop the new land. In fact, he was playing on the unquestioning trust people grant those from their own religious or ethnic group. The Poyais settlement scheme was an “affinity crime”: MacGregor was one of them.
.../...









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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 16:18 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

___________________________________
THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
The Morning Brief

___________________________________

Jeffrey Sprecher, the derivatives boss set to take control of America's most storied stock exchange, believes the stock market is ready for a shake-up.

The chief executive and chairman of IntercontinentalExchange Inc., which last week unveiled plans to buy  NYSE Euronext for $8.2 billion, isn't steeped in the business of equities trading. But he has plenty to say about it, including some views that challenge the prevailing wisdom and business models of many securities-trading firms.

The 57-year-old, who started IntercontinentalExchange 12 years ago after a career in the electric-power industry, opposes paying incentives to lure big traders onto stock exchanges, a widespread practice that exchange officials say is necessary to keep their markets in motion. Mr. Sprecher also objects to the dispersion of stock trading across scores of exchanges and private markets, a trend embraced by banks and trading firms that earn profits by trading shares away from exchanges.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323291704578199892436672904.h…


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 17:14 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Tech stocks get post-holiday lift

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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 18:22 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Après celle des tulipes, la bulle des terres rares :


FINANCE-MARCHÉS


La "bulle" des terres rares n'en finit plus de dégonfler


26/12 | 15:34 | Pierrick Fay


Les prix des terres rares continuent de chuter malgré les arrêts de production en Chine.


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MessagePosté le: Mer 26 Déc - 18:28 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Espagne : les banques nationalisées transfèrent 36 milliards d'euros d'actifs toxique


26/12 | 16:46

La première phase de transfert d'actifs provenant des quatre banques nationalisées, Bankia, Catalunya Bank, NovaGalicia et Banco de Valencia, a commencé et devra être achevée d'ici la fin de l'année.


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MessagePosté le: Jeu 27 Déc - 17:22 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

From COMPANIES 9:56amChina investment products draw complaintsCases small in isolation but analysts warn of risks in sector

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MessagePosté le: Jeu 27 Déc - 19:31 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant


House Republicans: MF Failure Avoidable

House Republicans released a 97-page report rebuking former MF Global CEO Jon Corzine and criticizing the firm's disclosure of its trading strategy and financial position in the months leading up to its collapse late last year.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324735104578120821066218256.h…

*  *  *

U.S. Stocks Waver

Stocks seesawed amid a large jobless-claims jump that was a result of superstorm Sandy.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324556304578120504265959698.h…

*  *  *


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MessagePosté le: Jeu 27 Déc - 22:27 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

Apple should thank Windows and Android
December 24, 2012, 9:13 PM
 
 

Howdy y’all, and welcome back to the rodeo, where the bulls buck hard and only the best of the best can hold on til the buzzer.
Our second largest position on the short side of my personal ledger and as outlinedhere in Revolution Investing, Dollar General DG +0.54%, reported another round of dismal earnings and outlook and it’s down to the lowest levels its been since we stepped in with our short. Our third largest short position, Dollar Tree, is down in sympathy. I’m going to cover about a fifth of my DG short to lock in some of these profits.
Apple’s AAPL +0.06% been up, though we’ve seen that before lately, haven’t we? I’m not selling any of my Apple yet, which remains my largest position. As I repeatedly outlined last week, now that the xMas iPad/iPhone selling season is here, we’ll need to see analysts raising their numbers for each into year-end. And today we’re seeing several reports of raised estimates for iPhone 5 sales this quarter (JP Morgan even upped their estimates for iPhone 5 sales this quarter from their prior guess by nearly 15%). More supply of the iPhone is hitting and that’s enabling supply to meet demand and that demand for both the iPhone 5 and the iPad Mini is likely quite a bit stronger than the analysts expected.
On a similar note, please do give me your feedback on the Microsoft’s MSFT +0.39%Windows 8 and whether you’ve tried it and/or whether you’re going to get a new smartphone, tablet or PC and what kind you’ll be getting next. Here’s some great feedback from my column discussing my pessimism about the Windows 8 reception yesterday:
.../...

 


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MessagePosté le: Ven 28 Déc - 09:38 (2012)    Sujet du message: Marchés 2012 Répondre en citant

FINANCE-MARCHÉS 
L'activiste Bill Ackman accuse Herbalife de "chaîne de Ponzi"
28/12 | 07:00 | mis à jour à 07:19 | Nessim Ait-Kacimi 
 
Le fonds juge que la société a mis en place la plus grande fraude pyramidale pour une entreprise américaine. Il a vendu à découvert le titre, qui a perdu la moitié de sa valeur en une dizaine de jours. 


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